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Alaska Science Center

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Quantitative Ecology Research Program

collage of Alaska wildlifeThe Quantitative Ecology Research Program at the Alaska Science Center (ASC) develops analytical methods and statistical models to advance our understanding of ecological mechanisms underlying wildlife population dynamics and demographics. Research is conducted within the broad context of ASC programs, often relating to trust species managed by the U.S. Department of the Interior in Arctic and sub-Arctic habitats, including polar bears, Pacific walruses, sea otters, migratory birds, and Pacific salmon. Unique aspects of the populations and ecosystems under study frequently require the innovative development of advanced statistical methods.  Research that reveals insights into ecological mechanisms underlying population dynamics, or generates new hypotheses regarding mechanisms, is emphasized.  Given the strong influence climate exerts on Arctic and sub-Arctic ecosystems, research objectives often involve assessing the consequences of a rapidly warming Arctic to population ecology and forecasting future population status.

Recent Publications:

Atwood, T. C., B. G. Marcot, D. C. Douglas, S. C. Amstrup, K. D. Rode, G. M. Durner, and J. F. Bromaghin. 2016. Forecasting the relative influence of environmental and anthropogenic stressors on polar bears. Ecosphere 11(6):e01370. doi:10.1002/ecs2.1370 [Details] [Full Publication]

Bromaghin, J. F., S. M. Budge, and G. W. Thiemann. 2016. Should fatty acid signature proportions sum to 1 for diet estimation?. Ecological Research 31:597-606. doi:10.1007/s11284-016-1357-8 [Details] [Full Publication]

Bromaghin, J. F., S. M. Budge, G. W. Thiemann, and K. D. Rode. 2016. Assessing the robustness of quantitative fatty acid signature analysis to assumption violations. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 7(1):51-59. doi:10.1111/2041-210X.12456 [Details] [Full Publication]

Ware, J. V., K. D. Rode, A. M. Pagano, J. F. Bromaghin, C. T. Robbins, J. A. Erlenbach, and H. T. Jansen. 2015. Validation of mercury tip-switch and accelerometer activity sensors for identifying resting and active behavior in bears. Ursus 26(2):86-96. doi:10.2192/URSUS-D-14-00031.1 [Details] [Full Publication]

Bromaghin, J. F. 2015. Simulating realistic predator signatures in quantitative fatty acid signature analysis. Ecological Informatics 30:68-71. doi:10.1016/j.ecoinf.2015.09.011 [Details] [Full Publication]

Haynes, T. B., J. A. Schmutz, J. F. Bromaghin, S. J. Iverson, V. M. Padula, and A. E. Rosenberger. 2015. Diet of yellow-billed loons (Gavia adamsii) in Arctic lakes during the nesting season inferred from fatty acid analysis. Polar Biology 38(8):1239-1247. doi:10.1007/s00300-015-1690-3 [Details] [Full Publication]

Bromaghin, J. F., K. D. Rode, S. M. Budge, and G. W. Thiemann. 2015. Distance measures and optimization spaces in quantitative fatty acid signature analysis. Ecology and Evolution 5(6):1249-1262. doi:10.1002/ece3.1429 [Details] [Full Publication]

Atwood, T. C., B. G. Marcot, D. C. Douglas, S. C. Amstrup, K. D. Rode, G. M. Durner, and J. F. Bromaghin. 2015. Evaluating and ranking threats to the long-term persistence of polar bears. USGS Open-File Report 2014-1254, 114 p. doi:10.3133/ofr20141254 [Details] [Full Publication]

Bromaghin, J. F., T. L. McDonald, I. Stirling, A. E. Derocher, E. S. Richardson, E. V. Regehr, D. C. Douglas, G. M. Durner, T. C. Atwood, and S. C. Amstrup. 2015. Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline. Ecological Applications 25(3):634-651. doi:10.1890/14-1129.1 [Details] [Full Publication] Impact ranked #1 among papers published by Ecological Applications (April 2015).


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