USGS - science for a changing world

Alaska Science Center

white dothome: white dotproducts: white dotoutreach/media: white dotcontact us:   white dotinternal:
All USGS This site only

Tsunami impact to Washington and northern Oregon from segment ruptures on the southern Cascadia subduction zone

Start a New Search | Return to existing search by pressing your browser's back arrow

Full Publication: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1041-7

Product Type: Journal Article

Year: 2014

Authors: Priest, G. R., Y. Zhang, R. C. Witter, K. Wang, C. Goldfinger, and L. Stimely


Suggested Citation:
Priest, G. R., Y. Zhang, R. C. Witter, K. Wang, C. Goldfinger, and L. Stimely. 2014. Tsunami impact to Washington and northern Oregon from segment ruptures on the southern Cascadia subduction zone. Natural Hazards 72(2):849-870. doi:10.1007/s11069-014-1041-7

Abstract


This paper explores the size and arrival of tsunamis in Oregon and Washington from the most likely partial ruptures of the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) in order to determine (1) how quickly tsunami height declines away from sources, (2) evacuation time before significant inundation, and (3) extent of felt shaking that would trigger evacuation. According to interpretations of offshore turbidite deposits, the most frequent partial ruptures are of the southern CSZ. Combined recurrence of ruptures extending ~490 km from Cape Mendocino, California, to Waldport, Oregon (segment C) and ~320 km from Cape Mendocino to Cape Blanco, Oregon (segment D), is ~530 years. This recurrence is similar to frequency of full-margin ruptures on the CSZ inferred from paleoseismic data and to frequency of the largest distant tsunami sources threatening Washington and Oregon, ~Mw 9.2 earthquakes from the Gulf of Alaska. Simulated segment C and D ruptures produce relatively low-amplitude tsunamis north of source areas, even for extreme (20 m) peak slip on segment C. More than ~70 km north of segments C and D, the first tsunami arrival at the 10-m water depth has an amplitude of <1.9 m. The largest waves are trapped edge waves with amplitude ≤4.2 m that arrive ≥2 h after the earthquake. MM V-VI shaking could trigger evacuation of educated populaces as far north as Newport, Oregon for segment D events and Grays Harbor, Washington for segment C events. The NOAA and local warning systems will be the only warning at greater distances from sources.

Accessibility FOIA Privacy Policies and Notices

USA.gov logo U.S. Department of the Interior | U.S. Geological Survey
URL: https://alaska.usgs.gov/products/pubs/info.php?pubid=2981
Page Contact Information: ascweb@usgs.gov
Page Last Modified: March 20 2017 13:08:43.