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Future distribution of tundra refugia in northern Alaska

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Full Publication: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1926

Product Type: Journal Article
Year: 2013

Authors: Hope, A. G., E. Waltari, D. C. Payer, J. A. Cook, and S. L. Talbot

Suggested Citation:
Hope, A. G., E. Waltari, D. C. Payer, J. A. Cook, and S. L. Talbot. 2013. Future distribution of tundra refugia in northern Alaska. Nature Climate Change 3:931-938. doi:10.1038/nclimate1926

Abstract


Climate change in the Arctic is a growing concern for natural resource conservation and management as a result of accelerated warming and associated shifts in the distribution and abundance of northern species. We introduce a predictive framework for assessing the future extent of Arctic tundra and boreal biomes in northern Alaska. We use geo-referenced museum specimens to predict the velocity of distributional change into the next century and compare predicted tundra refugial areas with current land-use. The reliability of predicted distributions, including differences between fundamental and realized niches, for two groups of species is strengthened by fossils and genetic signatures of demographic shifts. Evolutionary responses to environmental change through the late Quaternary are generally consistent with past distribution models. Predicted future refugia overlap managed areas and indicate potential hotspots for tundra diversity. To effectively assess future refugia, variable responses among closely related species to climate change warrants careful consideration of both evolutionary and ecological histories.

Keywords: Climate change impacts, ecological modelling, evolutionary ecology, refugia, Arctic

Annotation


Climate change in the Arctic is a growing concern for natural resource conservation and management as a result of accelerated warming and associated shifts in the distribution and abundance of northern species. Disturbances, such as increased industrial development and other anthropogenic stressors, compound impacts as the Arctic becomes more accessible. The integrated framework in this study can be broadly applied throughout the Arctic and across multiple biomes to forecast future scenarios and identify common processes, responses, and distributions, particularly for future refugial areas.