USGS Changing Arctic Ecosystems: Enhancing forecasts of polar bear and walrus population response to a rapidly changing Arctic ecosystem
This theme of projects is focused on studies that will enhance the forecasting of polar bear and walrus population responses to a rapidly changing Arctic ecosystem.Abstract
This theme of studies focuses on the marine-sea ice-dominated ecosystem of the Arctic where sea ice extent and structure is undergoing rapid change. Sea ice is both a critical platform for wildlife species to access food and to complete critical components of their life cycle and exerts a strong influence on pelagic and benthic food webs. The emphasis of the theme is on two species dependent on the sea ice environment – polar bear and Pacific walrus. Documentation of the response of these two species to sea ice change will allow for a more holistic understanding of how projected changes in physical processes linked to sea ice change will be expressed through ecosystem processes to other top consumers. Because both species are currently showing an increasing use of terrestrial habitats, this theme will also incorporate science to support forecasts of change in key terrestrial habitats in addition to the present sea ice habitat focus of the evolving Bayesian models for both species. Conceptual elements for Theme I are outlined in Figure 3a and will focus initially on two major areas of investigation to improve the existing Bayesian Models: (1) assess and project polar bear and walrus habitat quality, availability and preferences, and (2) assess and project polar bear and walrus population dynamics in response to habitat.
Products
Contacts
Atwood, Todd C., 907-786-7061Durner, George M., 907-786-7082
Rode, Karyn D., 907-786-7106
Status: completed
Start Year: 2010
End Year: 2019