Near Surface Permafrost Dynamics as an Essential Climate Variable

Permafrost is ground that remains at or below freezing for two years or more and varies by the degree to which it contains frozen water, therefore its potential to subside following thaw. Recent reports of permafrost degradation are widespread and much of the near surface permafrost in the northern hemisphere will likely disappear by the end of the century.

Abstract

Permafrost was recently listed as a terrestrial Essential Climate Variable and several potential mechanisms of change can be quantified with remote sensing time series. We plan to focus on three aspects: 1) erosion of permafrost dominated coastlines, 2) expansion of thermokarst lakes, and 3) surface terrain stability and impacts of disturbance. The primary objective is the quantification of changes occurring to near surface permafrost and document changes in the rate of these disturbances. To do this we will utilize historic aerial photography and recent high-resolution satellite imagery to monitor coastal erosion permafrost landscape, thermokarst lake expansion, degradation of ice-wedges, thaw slumping, and overall landscape disturbance that leads to or results from thermokarst. Due to the availability of recent, high-resolution satellite imagery, available at no cost through NGA WARP and other venues we will pre-select a number sites throughout Alaska with thermokarst lakes set in terrain with varying degrees of ice-richness to determine lake expansion rates, segments of permafrost dominated coastline, and upland permafrost features that my show signs of terrain instability. We will document how these are potentially changing over time. The recent imagery will be compared to historic photography available in the EROS data center archive. This will require some type of sampling scheme that stratifies by ice-richness and availability of imagery. We will also request declassified satellite imagery from the Global Fiducial Library. We plan to develop remote sensing classification algorithms in Definiens Developer to help aid in the identification of areas undergoing near surface permafrost disturbance.

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Products

Title	Type
Hydrogeomorphic processes of thermokarst lakes with grounded-ice and floating-ice regimes	Publication
Assessment of pingo distribution and morphometry using an IfSAR derived digital surface model	Publication
Rapid movement of frozen debris-lobes: implications for permafrost degradation and slope instability	Publication
Cold Regions Lake and Landscape	Project Website

Contacts

Jones, Benjamin , 907-786-7033

Status: completed
Start Year: 2010
End Year: 2016

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Collaborators

Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities
BLM - Arctic Field Office
FWS - Alaska Region
University of Alaska Fairbanks

USGS Mission Area and Program

Land Resources → Land Change Science
Land Resources → Land Remote Sensing

Major Initiatives

LCC - Arctic Landscape Conservation Cooperative
LCC - Western Alaska Landscape Conservation Cooperative

Keywords

Cryosphere > Frozen Ground > Ground Ice
Cryosphere > Frozen Ground > Periglacial Processes
Cryosphere > Frozen Ground > Permafrost