Wildlife Potential Habitat Forecasting Framework
WILDCAST (WILDlife Potential Habitat ForeCASTing Framework) is a documented knowledge-based forecasting tool. The initial proof of concept pilot focuses on the biomes associated with the National Park Service's Arctic Network and is a joint 3-year effort of USGS and NPS beginning in FY09.
Inputs to WILDCAST will be developed through collaborations with ongoing efforts to include 1) models of probable changes to biome boundaries based on regional climate projections for 25, 50, 75 and 100 years into the future and 2) models of probable changes to vegetation type makeup based on changes in regional climate temperature and precipitation.
For the wildlife component of WILDCAST we will document or develop 1) professional assessments of likely changes to wildlife habitats both in range and extent and 2) models of probable effect of habitat change to key species of importance through Bayesian belief network (BBN) or other similar techniques.
WILDCAST will be a collaborative tool to help identify critical weaknesses in our understanding of wildlife response to potential habitat change, help define research priorities, and inform resource management discussions.
WILDCAST Kick-off Workshop
October 17, 2008
Westmark Hotel, Fairbanks
This first workshop consisted of presentations to discuss the basis and background of the WILDCAST framework, the use of Bayesian networks, climate/habitat projection methods, and available data sources. The presentations were followed by breakout sessions to initiate community input to the species/habitat matrices and to kick-off dialogue on Bayesian network model structure for a few key species.
Climate change in Alaska: projecting scenarios and uncertainty - Scott Rupp, University of Alaska - Fairbanks
Projecting future-climate scenarios to high-resolution using dynamical downscaling - Gary Clow, USGS
Time-lapse movies from surface station cameras (large files - please be patient with download times):
Lakeshore (permafrost) degradation at Lake 31 on the arctic coastal plain, NPRA
Coastal (permafrost) degradation at Drew Point on the arctic coast, NPRA, looking east
Coastal (permafrost) degradation at Drew Point on the arctic coast, NPRA, looking west
Projected effects of climate change on wildlife habitats and populations: mechanisms, uncertainty and scope of effects - Brad Griffith, USGS
Habitat changes associated with permafrost influences geomorphic processes - Torre Jorgensen, ABR
Projected arctic and boreal changes and implications for subsistence - Terry Chapin, UAF
LINK: A Decision Support Tool for Conservation Planning - Tim Fox, USGS
Modeling approaches useful for predicting change - Bruce Marcot, USFS
Reference Documents Used in Break-out Groups:
Arctic Network Species-Habitat Matrix
Literature Cited for Species-Habitat Matrix
Land Cover Descriptions for Species-Habitat Matrix